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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas. |
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Fecha : |
23/11/2016 |
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Actualizado : |
24/06/2021 |
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Autor : |
ROBERTSON, A. W.; BAETHGEN, W.; BLOCK, P.; LALL, U.; SANKARASUBRAMANIAN, A.; DE ASIS DE SOUZA FILHO, F.; VERBIST, K. M. J. |
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Afiliación : |
ANDREW W. ROBERTSON, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, USA; WALTER BAETHGEN, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, USA; PAUL BLOCK, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin, USA; UPMANU LALL, Dept. of Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, USA; ARUMUGAM SANKARASUBRAMANIAN, Dept. of Civil, Construction & Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, USA; FRANCISCO DE ASSIS DE SOUZA FILHO, Dept. of Hydrology, Federal University of Ceará, Brazil; KOEN M. J. VERBIST, UNESCO-IHP, Hydrological Systems and Global Change section; International Centre for Eremology, Department of Soil Management, Ghent University. |
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Título : |
Climate risk management for water in semi arid regions. |
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Complemento del título : |
Research article. |
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Fecha de publicación : |
2014 |
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Fuente / Imprenta : |
Earth Perspectives, Transdisciplinarity Enabled 2014, v. 1, p. 12. |
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DOI : |
10.1186/2194-6434-1-12 |
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Idioma : |
Inglés |
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Notas : |
Received: 1 October 2013 // Accepted: 3 March 2014 // Published: 17 June 2014 |
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Contenido : |
ABSTRACT.
BACKGROUND: New sources of hydroclimate information based on forecast models and observational data have the potential to greatly improve the management of water resources in semi-arid regions prone to drought. Better management of climate-related risks and opportunities requires both new methods to develop forecasts of drought indicators and river flow, as well as better strategies to incorporate these forecasts into drought, river or reservoir management systems. In each case the existing institutional and policy context is key, making a collaborative approach involving stakeholders essential.
METHODS: This paper describes work done at the IRI over the past decade to develop statistical hydrologic forecast and water allocation models for the semi arid regions of NE Brazil (the ?Nordeste?) and central northern Chile based on seasonal climate forecasts.
RESULTS: In both locations, downscaled precipitation forecasts based on lagged SST predictors or GCM precipitation forecasts exhibit quite high skill. Spring-summer melt flow in Chile is shown to be highly predictable based on estimates of previous winter precipitation, and moderately predictable up to 6 months in advance using climate forecasts. Retrospective streamflow forecasts here are quite effective in predicting reductions in water rights during dry years. For the multi-use Oros reservoir in NE Brazil, streamflow forecasts have the most potential to optimize water allocations during multi-year low-flow periods, while the potential is higher for smaller reservoirs, relative to demand.
CONCLUSIONS: This work demonstrates the potential value of seasonal climate forecasting as an integral part of drought early warning and for water allocation decision support systems in semi-arid regions. As human demands for water rise over time this potential is certain to rise in the future.
© 2014 Robertson et al.; licensee Springer.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons MenosABSTRACT.
BACKGROUND: New sources of hydroclimate information based on forecast models and observational data have the potential to greatly improve the management of water resources in semi-arid regions prone to drought. Better management of climate-related risks and opportunities requires both new methods to develop forecasts of drought indicators and river flow, as well as better strategies to incorporate these forecasts into drought, river or reservoir management systems. In each case the existing institutional and policy context is key, making a collaborative approach involving stakeholders essential.
METHODS: This paper describes work done at the IRI over the past decade to develop statistical hydrologic forecast and water allocation models for the semi arid regions of NE Brazil (the ?Nordeste?) and central northern Chile based on seasonal climate forecasts.
RESULTS: In both locations, downscaled precipitation forecasts based on lagged SST predictors or GCM precipitation forecasts exhibit quite high skill. Spring-summer melt flow in Chile is shown to be highly predictable based on estimates of previous winter precipitation, and moderately predictable up to 6 months in advance using climate forecasts. Retrospective streamflow forecasts here are quite effective in predicting reductions in water rights during dry years. For the multi-use Oros reservoir in NE Brazil, streamflow forecasts have the most potential to optimize water allocations during multi-year low-flow perio... Presentar Todo |
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Palabras claves : |
CLIMATE VARIABILITY; SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS; WATER SCARCITY. |
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Thesagro : |
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO. |
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Asunto categoría : |
-- |
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Marc : |
LEADER 02851naa a2200265 a 4500
001 1056126
005 2021-06-24
008 2014 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
024 7 $a10.1186/2194-6434-1-12$2DOI
100 1 $aROBERTSON, A. W.
245 $aClimate risk management for water in semi arid regions.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2014
500 $aReceived: 1 October 2013 // Accepted: 3 March 2014 // Published: 17 June 2014
520 $aABSTRACT. BACKGROUND: New sources of hydroclimate information based on forecast models and observational data have the potential to greatly improve the management of water resources in semi-arid regions prone to drought. Better management of climate-related risks and opportunities requires both new methods to develop forecasts of drought indicators and river flow, as well as better strategies to incorporate these forecasts into drought, river or reservoir management systems. In each case the existing institutional and policy context is key, making a collaborative approach involving stakeholders essential. METHODS: This paper describes work done at the IRI over the past decade to develop statistical hydrologic forecast and water allocation models for the semi arid regions of NE Brazil (the ?Nordeste?) and central northern Chile based on seasonal climate forecasts. RESULTS: In both locations, downscaled precipitation forecasts based on lagged SST predictors or GCM precipitation forecasts exhibit quite high skill. Spring-summer melt flow in Chile is shown to be highly predictable based on estimates of previous winter precipitation, and moderately predictable up to 6 months in advance using climate forecasts. Retrospective streamflow forecasts here are quite effective in predicting reductions in water rights during dry years. For the multi-use Oros reservoir in NE Brazil, streamflow forecasts have the most potential to optimize water allocations during multi-year low-flow periods, while the potential is higher for smaller reservoirs, relative to demand. CONCLUSIONS: This work demonstrates the potential value of seasonal climate forecasting as an integral part of drought early warning and for water allocation decision support systems in semi-arid regions. As human demands for water rise over time this potential is certain to rise in the future. © 2014 Robertson et al.; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
650 $aCAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
653 $aCLIMATE VARIABILITY
653 $aSEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS
653 $aWATER SCARCITY
700 1 $aBAETHGEN, W.
700 1 $aBLOCK, P.
700 1 $aLALL, U.
700 1 $aSANKARASUBRAMANIAN, A.
700 1 $aDE ASIS DE SOUZA FILHO, F.
700 1 $aVERBIST, K. M. J.
773 $tEarth Perspectives, Transdisciplinarity Enabled 2014$gv. 1, p. 12.
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Registro original : |
INIA Las Brujas (LB) |
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas. |
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Fecha actual : |
25/05/2020 |
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Actualizado : |
25/05/2020 |
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Tipo de producción científica : |
Trabajos en Congresos/Conferencias |
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Autor : |
LANFRANCO, B.; SALDIAS, R.; PENENGO, C.; FERRARO, B. |
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Afiliación : |
BRUNO ANTONIO LANFRANCO CRESPO, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay; RODRIGO NOEL SALDIAS SPINETTI, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay; CECILIA PENENGO, Proyecto IRI-INIA; BRUNO FERRARO ALBERTONI, INIA (Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria), Uruguay. |
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Título : |
Setting transformational pathways consistent with post-2015 SDGs: The case of Uruguay s rice sector. [Conference Paper]. [Presentation] |
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Fecha de publicación : |
2018 |
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Fuente / Imprenta : |
In: International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), 2018. 30th International Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia. Doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.277495 |
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DOI : |
10.22004/ag.econ.277495 |
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Idioma : |
Inglés |
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Notas : |
Acknowledegment: The authors want to thank all the stakeholders of the rice sector in Uruguay. for their strong support to this project and their commitment to the development of a sustainable transformation pathway for national agriculture. Special recognition to ACA, GMA,OPYPA-MGAP and all the other institutions and persons that collaborated with this initiative. To our institution and to our colleagues at INIA, go also our appreciation. All errors that could appear in this article are the sole responsibility of the authors.
Corresponding author: Bruno Lanfranco - email: bruno@inia.org.uy |
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Contenido : |
ABSTRACT:
This research outlines the fundamental elements of a pathway for transforming Uruguay?s rice sector in a way that is consistent with post-2015 SDGs. Uruguay is the
most export-oriented rice producing country in the word, selling around 95% of its total production in the international market. This article introduces the methodologic
approach followed for setting the productivity and environmental targets for 2030, which constitute the basis of the sustainable intensification process chosen by the country, and follows with the process of developing the transformation pathway that is necessary for achieving the goals. The simulated economic and environmental results are then presented and discussed in order to extract useful lessons for the development of SDGs in the case of other situations involving small open economies highly relying on agribusiness activities. This is precisely the reason why Uruguay was chosen as a relevant case study by United Nations, under the Sustainable Development Solutions Network initiative (SDSN). |
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Palabras claves : |
ATPi; SDSN; Sustainable intensification. |
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Asunto categoría : |
A50 Investigación agraria |
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URL : |
http://www.ainfo.inia.uy/digital/bitstream/item/14439/1/Lanfranco-B.-2018.-Conference-paper-1131.pdf
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Marc : |
LEADER 02430nam a2200205 a 4500
001 1061081
005 2020-05-25
008 2018 bl uuuu u01u1 u #d
024 7 $a10.22004/ag.econ.277495$2DOI
100 1 $aLANFRANCO, B.
245 $aSetting transformational pathways consistent with post-2015 SDGs$bThe case of Uruguay s rice sector. [Conference Paper]. [Presentation]$h[electronic resource]
260 $aIn: International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), 2018. 30th International Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia. Doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.277495$c2018
500 $aAcknowledegment: The authors want to thank all the stakeholders of the rice sector in Uruguay. for their strong support to this project and their commitment to the development of a sustainable transformation pathway for national agriculture. Special recognition to ACA, GMA,OPYPA-MGAP and all the other institutions and persons that collaborated with this initiative. To our institution and to our colleagues at INIA, go also our appreciation. All errors that could appear in this article are the sole responsibility of the authors. Corresponding author: Bruno Lanfranco - email: bruno@inia.org.uy
520 $aABSTRACT: This research outlines the fundamental elements of a pathway for transforming Uruguay?s rice sector in a way that is consistent with post-2015 SDGs. Uruguay is the most export-oriented rice producing country in the word, selling around 95% of its total production in the international market. This article introduces the methodologic approach followed for setting the productivity and environmental targets for 2030, which constitute the basis of the sustainable intensification process chosen by the country, and follows with the process of developing the transformation pathway that is necessary for achieving the goals. The simulated economic and environmental results are then presented and discussed in order to extract useful lessons for the development of SDGs in the case of other situations involving small open economies highly relying on agribusiness activities. This is precisely the reason why Uruguay was chosen as a relevant case study by United Nations, under the Sustainable Development Solutions Network initiative (SDSN).
653 $aATPi
653 $aSDSN
653 $aSustainable intensification
700 1 $aSALDIAS, R.
700 1 $aPENENGO, C.
700 1 $aFERRARO, B.
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